Space is not cheap but this is ridiculous.
“Space is hard.”
This has been said many times by many different people but what they are failing to add to it is “Space is expensive, very expensive. Especially for governments.”.
This will be a look at five different rockets that are or will be used in the near future for travel beyond earths confines. While there are others that are in the current space race, these were picked in part because the financial numbers are available in some form for comparison as well as those involved having actually made it to space (or close enough?) and beyond. Then a look at what the SLS money could have been better used for.
The rockets are:
SLS - Space Launch System - NASA and Boeing
Falcon 9 - SpaceX
Falcon Heavy - SpaceX
Starship - SpaceX
New Glenn - Blue Origin
Current Status:
SLS - Still in testing, first launch set for November 2021, 0 launches
Falcon 9 - First test in 2010 with first connection to ISS in 2012, 106 total launches
Falcon Heavy - First test flight was in 2018, 3 total launches
Starship - Still in testing but has made it to approximately 10 kilometers in altitude.
New Glenn - has yet to fly but is supposed to this year
Before getting to the money involved, lets look at some of the old history of getting people into space, mainly the cost of the Apollo program. In 1973 NASA reported the total cost as $25.4 billion, around $150 billion in 2021 dollars. The Apollo program ran from 1961 to 1972 and as far as I can tell this does not include the cost of the Gemini program.
Falcon 9
The cost of development of the Falcon 9 rocket, including the Falcon 1 development was in the area of $390 million while the NASA projected cost for them to develop would be in the area of $4 billion and for a “more commercial” development cost would be in the area of $1.4 billion.
Falcon Heavy
The cost of development of the Falcon Heavy was in the area of $500 million and while I cannot find information if this included the $390 million for the Falcon 9 development I think it would not as the construction of the Falcon Heavy included three Falcon 9 first stages.
Starship
As it has yet to be completed in the full configuration, also known as Starship that included the top part called Starship and the booster called Super Heavy, the estimated cost is in the area of $2 billion to $10 billion as a complete rocket.
New Glenn
While also not complete, the estimated cost for the New Glenn is in the area of $2.5 billion.
SLS
While still doing ground testing on the main stage, again, the current estimated cost of the SLS is in the area of $18 billion to get to first launch.
Next lets look at the lifting capacity of each of these.
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit or Geostationary Transfer Orbit
Mars = Getting to Mars
Falcon 9
LEO: 22,800 kg / 50,265 lb
GTO: 8,300 kg / 18,300 lb
Mars: 4,020 kg / 8,860 lb
Falcon Heavy
LEO: 63,800 kg / 140,660 lb
GTO: 26,700 kg / 58,860 lb
Mars: 16,800 kg / 37,040 lb
Starship
LEO: 100+ t / 220+ klb (+100,000 kg / +220,000 lb)
GTO: N/A
Mars: N/A (estimate 25,200 kg / 55,560 lb)
New Glenn
LEO: 45 MT (45,000 kg / 99,208 lb)
GEO: 13 MT (13,000 kg / 28,660 lb)
Mars: N/A
SLS
LEO: N/A
GEO: N/A
Mars: 26,988 kg / 59,500 lb (using Trans-LunarInjection numbers) to 45,994 kg / 101,400 lb depending on configuration, I will be using the lower numbers later
So lets narrow it down to those that can get out of earths gravity and beyond, that leaves us with three, the Falcon Heavy, Starship and SLS.
Based on some rough math the Starship is a little better than the Falcon Heavy (about 1.5 times) at lifting and SLS is about the same as Starship in the lower configuration, 59,500 lb to an estimated 55,560 lb. That leaves us with two.
Lets do a quick review of the two remaining.
SLS
Development Cost: $18,000,000,000
Per Launch Cost Estimated: $1,000,000,000 to $3,000,000,000
Development Time: Started in 2011
Starship
Development Cost: $10,000,000,000 (using high number)
Per Launch Cost Estimated: $2,000,000
Development Time: Started in 2012 with small team, 2018 larger team
So for the cost of a single SLS launch, ignoring the development costs you can get five to ten Starship launches.
While I still believe in NASA and a lot of what they are doing, maybe they should get out of the rocket design/building/launching and leave that to the private market. Since the last shuttle launch in 2011, NASA has yet to put anything into space on a rocket they designed/built/launched and I can only guess that the $18 billion cost will only go up, up and away as this is how things the government runs always seem to go.
Now that we have established that private companies are better at space things than government run programs (maybe), what better things could $18 billion be spent on.
End Houselessness for a year, maybe more
Homeless Rates Steady Despite Recession, HUD Says The New York Times - (2012 - paywall)
“Mark Johnston, the acting assistant housing secretary for community planning and development, estimated that homelessness could be effectively eradicated in the United States at an annual cost of about $20 billion. The housing department's budget for addressing homelessness is currently about $1.9 billion.”
Free Internet for 25.4% of the US population most in need (incomes under $34,999) $18 billion / (330 million * 25.4%) / 12 months = $17.90/month
Fund Food Banks The largest food bank Feeding America showed total income of donations and fund raising of $3.6 billion in 2020 - (PDF) for $18 billion you would get five years, probably less as more people are needing food support.
These are just a few things that maybe the government could put money into rather than space flight.
Other Data Sources:
Space Launch System SLS Overview NASA
SpaceX Falcon 9
SpaceX Falcon Heavy
SpaceX Starship
Boeing: Space Launch System
Blue Origin New Glenn
List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches Wikipedia
List of Space Launch System launches Wikipedia
Apollo program Wikipedia
Space Launch System Lift Capabilities - PDF
SpaceX's Starship May Fly for Just $2 Million Per Mission, Elon Musk Says Space
NASA's $1 Billion SLS Rocket Could Cost $2 Billion- Or More